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The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and recent weakness appears corrective - for now....
A bull cycle in WTI futures is intact and Thursday's gains reinforce current conditions. Recent gains resulted in a break of key resistance at $91.27, the May 18 high. Support to monitor in Gold is the area around the 50-day EMA, currently at $4349.0. It has been pierced but for now, as a support point, it remains intact. A clear break of the average would highlight a stronger reversal and signal scope for an extension towards $4231.1. * WTI Crude down $2.59 or -2.53% at $99.82 * Natural Gas down $0.02 or -0.56% at $2.818 * Gold spot up $32.64 or +0.76% at $4350.93 * Copper up $0.55 or +0.08% at $655.25 * Silver up $0.58 or +0.92% at $64.1875 * Platinum up $25.8 or +1.45% at $1807.48
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: * US INFLATION RELEASE SEEN AS FINAL DETERMINANT OF SEPTEMBER FED DECISION * BOND MARKET VOLUMES SURGE AS MARKETS PREP FOR CPI PRINT * GULF STATES COULD MEET WITH IRAN AS SOON AS NEXT WEEK TO DISCUSS FUTURE OF HORMUZ * UK GDP DATA SURPRISES TO THE UPSIDE IN BOOST FOR NEW PM BURNHAM Figure 1: Schatz futures on track for another bumper session of volumes, which currently sit 3x the average for this time of day Source: MNI / Bloomberg Finance L.P. NEWS IRAN (BBG: https://blinks.bloomberg/news/stories/TL6SGGKIJH8S): Gulf States May Meet Iran Next Week to Discuss Future of Hormuz A six-member bloc of Gulf states are considering meeting with Iranian officials next week to discuss the future of the Strait of Hormuz, people familiar with the matter said, in what would be the first gathering with the Islamic Republic since war erupted more than six months ago. Oman is aiming to get foreign ministers from the Gulf Cooperation Council and Iran together on Monday in Salalah, a southern Omani city, according to a person familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified discussing sensitive matters. OIL (BBG: https://blinks.bloomberg/news/stories/TL6S7HT9NJLS): IEA Warns Oil Demand May Have to Fall Further as Iran War Drags The International Energy Agency cut its forecast for oil demand and said consumption may have to decline further in the coming months as the Iran war drags on and consumers are forced to adjust to lower supply. The Paris-based agency deepened its estimates for this year's decline in global oil demand by 940,000 barrels a day to 2.5 million barrels a day - the biggest loss in annual average terms since the 2020 Covid pandemic shuttered vast swathes of the world economy. The return of a supply surplus will now be delayed until 2027, it said. US (WSJ: https://www.wsj/politics/policy/congress-is-suddenly-waking-up-to-the-ai-do omsday-threat-b40ab25a?mod=hp_lead_pos3): Congress Is Suddenly Waking Up to the AI Doomsday Threat A groundswell of urgency over artificial intelligence is surging in Congress amid growing fears that the technology could destroy civilization. After years of limited actions, dozens of lawmakers are now touting new proposals to regulate artificial-intelligence models that have stepped up their capabilities. US (BBG: https://blinks.bloomberg/news/stories/TL6FA3T9NJLU): Bessent Dismisses Buyback Concern, Says Treasuries Strong Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismissed concerns about the US bond market after Thursday's smaller-than-expected debt buyback operation sent yields to multi-year highs. The Treasury market is in "very good shape," Bessent said in an interview with Steve Bannon. He highlighted the strength of two auctions in recent days, and touted US outperformance compared with other markets. He also reiterated that bonds have been unusually highly correlated with energy prices lately. US (WSJ: https://www.wsj/politics/elections/vances-prime-time-speech-kicks-off-sprin t-to-2028-fd0c2b7c?mod=hp_lead_pos1): Vance's Prime-Time Speech Kicks Off Sprint to 2028 Vice President JD Vance looked very much like a presidential candidate-in-waiting at the Republican convention this week. He delivered a prime-time address, met with delegates from battleground states and headlined a high-dollar fundraiser with GOP donors. Vance's Thursday night speech fired up the crowd, as he laid out his vision for the America he wants his children to grow up in while painting Democrats as extreme. During the speech, audience members said the quiet part out loud, shouting "48!" Donald Trump is the 47th U.S. president, and the next one will be the 48th. MIDDLE-EAST (BBG: https://blinks.bloomberg/news/stories/TL6OKAKIJH92): Houthi-Saudi Clash Escalates as Rebels Push into Key Strait The Houthis advanced toward Red Sea coastal areas bordering the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait, as fighting between the militant group and Saudi-backed Yemeni forces intensifies. The Houthis have gained ground in their attempt to seize Mokha near the southern end of the Red Sea, according to several analysts, with some saying the Yemeni port city has been captured. ECB (BBG: https://blinks.bloomberg/news/stories/TL6V31KIUPSJ): Nagel Signals ECB May Have to Raise Rates Again to Tame Prices The European Central Bank may need to raise borrowing costs to levels that begin to curtail economic activity in order to get inflation under control, Governing Council member Joachim Nagel told CNBC. Speaking a day after officials boosted interest rates for the second time since the Iran war sent oil and natural gas costs surging, the Bundesbank chief said energy-price developments will be the key factor shaping the path for monetary policy. ECB (BBG: https://blinks.bloomberg/news/stories/TL5T93T9NJLS): Bank of France Governor Says Economy in 'Worrying' Situation Bank of France Governor Emmanuel Moulin said the economy is in a worrying situation and urged government and parliament to take action to tackle the budget deficit. "I wouldn't say France is in danger, but it is in a situation that is worrying and unsatisfactory," Moulin, who is also a member of the European Central Bank, said on RTL radio. "There is a concern today because there are things that need to be dealt with, in particular public finances and the budget deficit." ECB (BBG: https://blinks.bloomberg/news/stories/TL6S3QKJH6V6): ECB's Kaasik Says Understandable Why Markets See More Rate Hikes Investor bets on additional European Central Bank increases in borrowing costs are logical given the present situation, according to Governing Council member Ulo Kaasik. "It's true the markets are expecting the interest-rate hiking cycle to continue, and looking at the current developments it's understandable why the markets think that," the Estonian official told Aripaev on Friday. DATA [UK DATA] July GDP Beat Paints Better Q3 Picture, Services (AI) Lead Growth: Monthly GDP surprised to the upside again in July, growing 0.39%M/M (0.0% cons) for a fairly broad-based beat, after 0.31% in June and -0.01% in May (note that back data are not open to revisions in the first month of the quarter). This keeps growth at 0.40% 3M/3M, little changed from June, and starts Q3 on a decently stronger-than-expected footing. Assuming flat growth across August and September, the July beat implies Q3 growth around 0.6%Q/Q, although there is scope for both reversal of recent strength and downward revisions in upcoming prints. * For an early look at Q3 implications, the July beat means that, even with no growth in Aug or Sep, Q3 GDP could come in around 0.6%Q/Q, although note there is scope for reversals of recent strength or revisions to monthly estimates in upcoming releases. This would be an acceleration from 0.42% in Q2, back to around the rate seen early in the year (0.63% Q1), and also notably above pre-July sell-side and BoE forecasts (the BoE looked for Q3 growth of 0.1%Q/Q in its July MPR). FOREX: US CPI Key Near-Term Mover For Dollar: https://www.mnimarkets/articles/us-cpi-key-near-term-mover-for-dollar-17891 18222376 * Today's US CPI will prove the crucial release ahead of next week's Fed decision after Chair Warsh downplayed recent softer inflation prints in his Jackson Hole speech. Very crudely, a 0.2% M/M core CPI print will come down to rounding and details; 0.3% could be enough to persuade a sufficient share of the FOMC to hike, whereas 0.1% would likely see more officials come around to Waller's approach of waiting further. The tilt on the expected Fed stance next week should filter through to the US dollar index today, with key levels being August 21 lows at 98.56 and September 2 highs of 99.86. * USDJPY remains a prime candidate for those looking for a more dovish outcome in the CPI release following yen strength, as a bear threat in the pair remains present following the breach of support at 155.23, the Aug 3 low. Weak CPI would provide scope for a move towards 151.94, the 50% retracement of the bull leg between Apr 22 '25 and Jul 23. Initial resistance to watch is 155.23, the Aug 3 low. * NOK weakness today comes amid lower crude prices apparent despite headlines noting that the Houthis have assumed full control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. It's fair to say markets were probably pricing that outcome yesterday as the group made advances towards their goal, helping explain the lack of hawkish energy market follow through on the latest headlines. * However, today's NOK price action should not disguise yesterday's cycle lows in EURNOK at 10.6869, the lowest levels since 2023. Focus at the upcoming September Norges decision will be on how the Board balances 3-months of lower-than-expected readings with the fact CPI-ATE is still more elevated than desired. Next week's Q3 Regional Network Survey will be a key final input, containing details on underlying inflation pressures (i.e. capacity utilisation, wages) as well as growth prospects across industries. * CHF is underperforming moderately, leading EURCHF to extend cycle highs to 0.9447, matching that of April 2025, and putting focus on August 2025 highs of 0.9457. Clearance here would strengthen the uptrend, and open up an area of highs seen in late 2024/ early 2025 closely above the 0.9500 handle. From a fundamental perspective, the SNB's unchanged stance has resulted in widening rate differentials of most G10 vs Switzerland, and highlights the franc's status as the last remaining funder following yen strength this month. * Apart from US CPI, average weekly earnings and Michigan sentiment are also scheduled. ECB's Lagarde and Lane are scheduled to speak. EGBS: Aggresive Twist Steepening In German Curve, Futures Volumes Elevated: https://www.mnimarkets/articles/aggresive-twist-steepening-in-german-curve- futures-volumes-elevated-1789118476165 The German curve has twist steepened quite aggressively, with Schatz yields down 4.5bps to 3.19% and 2s10s up over 5.5bps. A pullback in energy benchmarks has driven the modest recovery at the front-end, potentially alongside some delayed digestion of yesterday's ECB decision. 10-year Bund yields are up 1bp to 3.50%, a multi-year high. * Volumes in EGB/Euribor futures have been notably elevated. With over 550k lots having traded in the Schatz future this morning alone - vs just 200k this time yesterday * 10-year EGB spreads to Bunds have narrowed, with lower energy prices helping European equity futures away from yesterday's lows. The BTP/Bund spread is down 2bps to 86bps. * There's been plenty of ECB speak this morning following yesterday's decision. Most have re-iterated President Lagarde's press conference message, though the hawkish Nagel noted that the ECB may consider moving into mildly restrictive territory. Banque de France Governor Moulin emphasised that debt cancellation is an illegal and inflationary idea, echoing Lagarde yesterday and French finance minister Lescure this morning. Note that the 10-year OAT/Bund spread closed at a fresh high of 94bps yesterday (currently the spread is back to 92bps). * There hasn't been any meaningful regional data this morning. GILTS: Bull Steepening Deepens: https://www.mnimarkets/articles/bull-steepening-deepens-1789119097551 Gils continue to edge away from lows with energy markets back from highs after the Brent rally stalled at $110. * Focus remains on reports surrounding fresh mediatory efforts re: the U.S. & Iran, as opposed to further Houthi advances culminating in the apparent seizure of control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. * Gilt futures last +28 at 84.50. * Yesterday's sell off deepened the bearish technical backdrop in gilts, with energy price movement remaining the key fundamental input at this stage. * Sights are on 83.60 in futures, a Fibonacci projection point. Initial firm resistance is seen at 85.96, the 20-day EMA. * Yields 2.5-6.0bp lower, curve bull steepens. * 10s have traded as high as 5.376% over the past 24 hours, underscoring upside yield risks after the recent break above the upper boundary of the upward sloping triangle formation we had identified in recent months. * 44bp of tightening is now priced through December, with 98bp showing through June. * A high bar for September action remains intact, but meetings after that are very much live at this stage. * We identified some similarities in GBP STIRs to prior hawkish episodes surrounding the Middle East. * The main differential comes via higher for longer pricing, as seen in GBP 1y1y swaps, which have printed 25bp through prior cycle highs before fading. * This morning's monthly GDP and BoE survey data had little impact on markets * U.S. CPI data and energy price swings are set to dominate into the weekend. EQUITIES: EuroStoxx Weakness Highlights Corrective Cycle: https://www.mnimarkets/articles/eurostoxx-weakness-highlights-corrective-cy cle-1789117591771 The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and recent weakness appears corrective - for now. However, Thursday's move lower resulted in a breach of support at the 50-day EMA, currently at 7629.75. EUROSTOXX 50 futures have traded to a fresh short-term cycle low this week, highlighting the next leg of the current corrective cycle. An important support around the 50-day EMA, at 6376.84, has been breached. * Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 1259.61 pts or -1.93% at 64011.34 and the TOPIX ended 26.28 pts lower or -0.65% at 4028.3. * Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed lower by 46.293 pts or -1.18% at 3888.111 and the HANG SENG ended 148.84 pts lower or -0.6% at 24805.63. * Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 115.8 pts or +0.46% at 25474.63, FTSE 100 higher by 33.48 pts or +0.32% at 10641.49, CAC 40 up 41.58 pts or +0.51% at 8156.21 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 36.46 pts or +0.58% at 6304.26. * Dow Jones mini up 281 pts or +0.54% at 52376, S&P 500 mini up 44.75 pts or +0.59% at 7630.75, NASDAQ mini up 180.25 pts or +0.62% at 29324.5. COMMODITIES: WTI Retreats, But Dips Shallow Below $100/bbl: https://www.mnimarkets/articles/wti-retreats-but-dips-shallow-below-dollar1 00bbl-1789117453353 A bull cycle in WTI futures is intact and Thursday's gains reinforce current conditions. Recent gains resulted in a break of key resistance at $91.27, the May 18 high. Support to monitor in Gold is the area around the 50-day EMA, currently at $4349.0. It has been pierced but for now, as a support point, it remains intact. A clear break of the average would highlight a stronger reversal and signal scope for an extension towards $4231.1. * WTI Crude down $2.59 or -2.53% at $99.82 * Natural Gas down $0.02 or -0.56% at $2.818 * Gold spot up $32.64 or +0.76% at $4350.93 * Copper up $0.55 or +0.08% at $655.25 * Silver up $0.58 or +0.92% at $64.1875 * Platinum up $25.8 or +1.45% at $1807.48 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date GMT/Local Impact Country Event 11/09/2026 1200/0800 ** BR Brazil Final CPI 11/09/2026 1230/0830 *** US CPI 11/09/2026 1400/1000 *** US UMich Surveys of Consumers 11/09/2026 1700/1300 ** US Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly 11/09/2026 1700/1900 EU ECB Lane Lecture at Dublin Economics Workshop Annual Conference 11/09/2026 1800/1400 ** US Treasury Budget 12/09/2026 0800/1000 EU ECB Lagarde at Fte de la Pomme in preville-en-Lieuvin, France
Highlights: * US 10y yield remains in uncomfortably close proximity to 5% * Rates market volatilty seen pressuring central banks into expedited tightening cycle, keeping rates higher for longer * Today's CPI data seen as key determinant for Fed's September decision US TSYS: 10Y Yield Climb Slows As It Nears 5% With CPI Ahead: https://www.mnimarkets/articles/10y-yield-climb-slows-as-it-nears-5percent- with-cpi-ahead-1789125032603 Treasuries have pulled away from latest cycle lows seen overnight which had come close to yet more notable levels including the 10Y yield pushing closer to 5%. President Trump said the Iran War could end before the midterm election whilst Tsy Sec Bessent said the Treasury market is in "very good shape" and played down concerns about a jump in yields." Volumes have been particularly heavy for an overnight session before a CPI release. * Cash yields are 1.4-3.7bp lower on the day, with declines led by 3s whilst 30s lag moves. * The 10Y yield sits at 4.940% off an earlier fresh recent high of 4.9772% - it slightly cleared 5.00% in Oct 2023 (5.0187%) and before that was last above 5.00% in 2007. * The 30Y yield sits at 5.351% off an earlier high of 5.3814% for fresh highs since 2007. * TYZ6 trades at 106-12 (+00+) off an earlier latest low of 106-04+ on cumulative volumes above 600k, a particularly heavy pre-CPI overnight session. * It came close to testing latest support at 106-04 (Fibo projection of Jun 30 - Jul 14 - 17 price swing) after which sits a round 106-00, a level should see more material support seeing as 5% 10Y yields currently translate to 106-00+ (vs 106-01+ yesterday). * To the upside, resistance remains at the 20-day EMA (107-23). * Data: CPI Aug (0830ET), Real av earnings Aug (0830ET), U.Mich consumer survey Sep prelim (1000ET), Household change in net worth Q2 (1200ET), Federal budget balance Aug (1400ET) * Politics: Trump participates in 9/11 Observance Ceremony (0900ET) and Wreath Laying Ceremony (1025ET) US 10Y yield climbs towards 5% Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.STIR: US Rates Mostly Consolidate Thursday's Hawkish Surge Ahead Of CPI: https://www.mnimarkets/articles/us-rates-mostly-consolidate-thursdays-hawki sh-surge-ahead-of-cpi-1789123559441 * US rates have lifted from latest cycle lows overnight, buoyed by a pullback in crude oil futures even if relief in rates has been modest considering the more than 3% decline in 1st WTI ahead of today's CPI release. * MNI US CPI Preview: https://mni.marketnews/4ighbw6 * We wrote in the preview on prospects of a hike next week that "Very crudely, a 0.2% M/M core CPI print will come down to rounding and details; 0.3% could be enough to persuade a sufficient share of the FOMC to hike, whereas 0.1% would likely see more officials come around to Waller's approach." * That is likely still the case but with perhaps a slightly lower bar to a 'high' 0.2% print having enough of an impact considering firmer core PCE tracking since yesterday's PPI report. * FF cumulative hikes from 3.63% effective: 17bp Sep, 27bp Oct, 43.5bp Dec, 52.5bp Jan 2027, 66.5bp Mar, 73bp Apr and 80bp Jun. * SOFR futures range from +0.01 to -0.015 on the day, with a peak implied yield of 4.53% (U7) consolidating yesterday's surge. * SFRU7 trades at 95.470 off an overnight fresh cycle low of 95.425. Highlighting the magnitude of this week's moves ahead of CPI, this had briefly bottomed at 95.640 (for then also fresh cycle lows) after last week's strong payrolls figures. ECB: Analysts Post-ECB: 10 View Changes But Still Far Less Hawkish Than Market: https://www.mnimarkets/articles/analysts-post-ecb-10-view-changes-but-still -far-less-hawkish-than-market-1789119362867 * We have seen 10 view changes from the 30 analysts summarised below, unsurprisingly all in a hawkish direction after yesterday's ECB decision and communications, plus others pointing to upside risk to rate views. * At the hawkish end of the spectrum, Nordea - with their long-standing call for a terminal 3% deposit rate - have been joined by Danske Bank, Nomura and MUFG. * There's a clear median view that the next hike will come in December but Danske and MUFG explicitly call for October (i.e. 2 of 30 vs 20.5bp currently priced). * This median view sees a deposit rate at 2.75% at both the end of 2026 and 2027 (vs OIS pricing a 3.25% deposit rate around mid-2027). * Some do still look for cuts though, including Goldman Sachs and UBS with 25bp cuts to 2.5% at end-2027 (with the GS view including a second cut in early 2028 to 2.25%) and more notable terminal rate views of 2% for BofA, Morgan Stanley and Santander. The below table starts with those at the more hawkish end of the spectrum: ECB: Analysts Post-ECB: Part 2/2: https://www.mnimarkets/articles/analysts-post-ecb-part-22-1789119416479 Part two of the analyst table with those from the more dovish end of the spectrum: EUR SWAPS: ESTR 1Y1Y/2Y2Y Back Below Parity: https://www.mnimarkets/articles/estr-1y1y2y2y-back-below-parity-17891184441 02 * The STR 1Y1Y/2Y2Y spread is now firmly in negative territory with scope to move lower. This move underscores concerns that hawkish front-end pricing is a clear headwind to medium-term growth. * STR 1Y1Y has edged slightly below its highs, courtesy of a minor pullback in energy benchmarks from their peak this morning, but at ~3.27% its surge from pre-ECB levels near 3.10% has pushed the belly of the forward curve firmly below parity - as flagged on 8th September - with the 1Y1Y/2Y2Y spread approaching -15bp, albeit marginally off its lows. * Crucially, while the 2y2y forward rate has pierced its late 2022/2023 cyclical highs at near 3.20%, the 1y1y leg has yet to do so. There is still a cushion of near 40bp before it reaches its 3.65% peak established in March 2023. * Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, MNI Against a backdrop where TTF front month remains around 80/MWh despite some slight softening today, with markets having digested some hawkish signalling from Lagarde yesterday (with the hawkish Nagel this morning noting that the ECB may need to consider moving into mildly restrictive territory), there is still room to push the curve differential even further into negative territory if the energy crisis escalates ahead of winter. STIR: Higher for Longer BoE Priced: https://www.mnimarkets/articles/higher-for-longer-boe-priced-1789114348911 Moves in GBP STIRs remind us of what was seen during the hawkish rounds of repricing that followed the outbreak the Iran war. * The degree of tightening now priced through June/July is similar to the extremes that were priced through year-end during late Q1/Q2 (100-110bp). * The main differential between the two instances comes via higher for longer pricing, as seen in GBP 1y1y swaps, which have printed 25bp through prior cycle highs before fading. * Central banks are more policy takers than policymakers given the current energy backdrop, with the situation in the Middle East key despite the wait and see stance deployed by the BoE to date. * The Houthi advances towards a key strategic choke point for Middle East shipping provided much of the upside impetus in energy markets on Thursday. * While the MPC's key swing voters (Bailey, Ramsden and Lombardelli) have not sounded particularly close to switching their vote to a hike, the stickier energy prices become around current levels (or higher) the greater the odds that tightening will have to be deployed. * A high bar for September action remains intact, but meetings after that are very much live at this stage. FOREX: US CPI Key Near-Term Mover For Dollar: https://www.mnimarkets/articles/us-cpi-key-near-term-mover-for-dollar-17891 18222376 * Today's US CPI will prove the crucial release ahead of next week's Fed decision after Chair Warsh downplayed recent softer inflation prints in his Jackson Hole speech. Very crudely, a 0.2% M/M core CPI print will come down to rounding and details; 0.3% could be enough to persuade a sufficient share of the FOMC to hike, whereas 0.1% would likely see more officials come around to Waller's approach of waiting further. The tilt on the expected Fed stance next week should filter through to the US dollar index today, with key levels being August 21 lows at 98.56 and September 2 highs of 99.86. * USDJPY remains a prime candidate for those looking for a more dovish outcome in the CPI release following yen strength, as a bear threat in the pair remains present following the breach of support at 155.23, the Aug 3 low. Weak CPI would provide scope for a move towards 151.94, the 50% retracement of the bull leg between Apr 22 '25 and Jul 23. Initial resistance to watch is 155.23, the Aug 3 low. * NOK weakness today comes amid lower crude prices apparent despite headlines noting that the Houthis have assumed full control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. It's fair to say markets were probably pricing that outcome yesterday as the group made advances towards their goal, helping explain the lack of hawkish energy market follow through on the latest headlines. * However, today's NOK price action should not disguise yesterday's cycle lows in EURNOK at 10.6869, the lowest levels since 2023. Focus at the upcoming September Norges decision will be on how the Board balances 3-months of lower-than-expected readings with the fact CPI-ATE is still more elevated than desired. Next week's Q3 Regional Network Survey will be a key final input, containing details on underlying inflation pressures (i.e. capacity utilisation, wages) as well as growth prospects across industries. * CHF is underperforming moderately, leading EURCHF to extend cycle highs to 0.9447, matching that of April 2025, and putting focus on August 2025 highs of 0.9457. Clearance here would strengthen the uptrend, and open up an area of highs seen in late 2024/ early 2025 closely above the 0.9500 handle. From a fundamental perspective, the SNB's unchanged stance has resulted in widening rate differentials of most G10 vs Switzerland, and highlights the franc's status as the last remaining funder following yen strength this month. * Apart from US CPI, average weekly earnings and Michigan sentiment are also scheduled. ECB's Lagarde and Lane are scheduled to speak. OPTIONS: Expiries for Sep11 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC): https://www.mnimarkets/articles/expiries-for-sep11-ny-cut-1000et-source-dtc c-1789122328116 * EUR/USD: $1.1500(E947mln), $1.1575($1.4bln), $1.1600(E766mln), $1.1675(E724mln) * USD/JPY: Y152.00($1.7bln), Y153.00($2.7bln), Y154.00($2.7bln), Y155.00($1.1bln) * GBP/USD: $1.3630(Gbp565mln) * AUD/USD: $0.7110(A$544mln), $0.7150(A$657mln), $0.7250(A$622mln) EQUITIES: EuroStoxx Weakness Highlights Corrective Cycle: https://www.mnimarkets/articles/eurostoxx-weakness-highlights-corrective-cy cle-1789117591771 The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and recent weakness appears corrective - for now. However, Thursday's move lower resulted in a breach of support at the 50-day EMA, currently at 7629.75. EUROSTOXX 50 futures have traded to a fresh short-term cycle low this week, highlighting the next leg of the current corrective cycle. An important support around the 50-day EMA, at 6376.84, has been breached. COMMODITIES: WTI Retreats, But Dips Shallow Below $100/bbl: https://www.mnimarkets/articles/wti-retreats-but-dips-shallow-below-dollar1 00bbl-1789117453353 A bull cycle in WTI futures is intact and Thursday's gains reinforce current conditions. Recent gains resulted in a break of key resistance at $91.27, the May 18 high. Support to monitor in Gold is the area around the 50-day EMA, currently at $4349.0. It has been pierced but for now, as a support point, it remains intact. A clear break of the average would highlight a stronger reversal and signal scope for an extension towards $4231.1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date GMT/Local Impact Country Event 11/09/2026 1230/0830 *** US CPI 11/09/2026 1400/1000 *** US UMich Surveys of Consumers 11/09/2026 1700/1300 ** US Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly 11/09/2026 1700/1900 EU ECB Lane Lecture at Dublin Economics Workshop Annual Conference 11/09/2026 1800/1400 ** US Treasury Budget 12/09/2026 0800/1000 EU ECB Lagarde at Fte de la Pomme in preville-en-Lieuvin, France
Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews/MNICEEMEA_Week_Ahead140926_0253d55a71.pdf Click the link above to see next week's key CEEMEA data releases and events, including notable option expiries and bond auctions, along with our latest macro insights. * CE3 currencies subject to global rates vol risk, while persistent gains in NatGas prices work against HUF. Bubbling geopolitical risk in the Middle-east as well as expectations that Russia are gearing for an entrenched winter campaign in Ukraine keep vols entrenched * Czech CNB rate decision expected unchanged, but set to leave options open amid upside risks to inflation * Poland's NBP set to release the official estimate of core inflation after noting that 'it can be estimated that in August inflation net of food and energy prices also increased'. A further uptick in core inflation would amplify concerns about existing price pressure
* CE3 currencies subject to global rates vol risk, while persistent gains in NatGas prices work against HUF. Bubbling geopolitical risk in the Middle-east as well as expectations that Russia are gearing for an entrenched winter campaign in Ukraine keep vols entrenched * Czech CNB rate decision expected unchanged, but set to leave options open amid upside risks to inflation * Poland's NBP set to release the official estimate of core inflation after noting that 'it can be estimated that in August inflation net of food and energy prices also increased'. A further uptick in core inflation would amplify concerns about existing price pressure Full document here: https://media.marketnews/MNICEEMEA_Week_Ahead140926_0253d55a71.pdf
* EUR/USD: $1.1580(E630mln), $1.1600(E1.2bln), $1.1620-25(E2.0bln), $1.1645(E575mln), $1.1700(E1.0...
* EUR/USD: Sep15 $1.1550-60(E1.6bln), $1.1600(E1.1bln), $1.1655(E960mln), $1.1750(E1.1bln), $1.2000(E1.1bln); Sep16 $1.1400(E2.4bln), $1.1595(E1.1bln); Sep17 $1.1400(E2.0bln), $1.1500(E1.8bln), $1.1600(E2.0bln), $1.1725-30(E1.6bln) * USD/JPY: Sep17 Y153.00($2.2bln), Y156.00($2.4bln), Y156.75($1.2bln) * AUD/USD: Sep16 $0.7130(A$1.0bln) * USD/CAD: Sep15 C$1.4000($3.1bln) * USD/CNY: Sep17 Cny6.7305($1.0bln)
* RES 4: 183.76 50-day EMA * RES 3: 182.57 20-day EMA * RES 2: 181.96 High Sep 4 * RES 1: 181.33 Low Aug 7 * PRICE: 178.23 @ 16:30 BST Sep 11 * SUP 1: 177.86 Low Sep 08 * SUP 2: 177.15 Low Nov 10 2025 * SUP 3: 176.01 1.236 proj of the Jul 29 - Aug 3 - 21 price swing * SUP 4: 175.29 38.2% retracement of the Feb 28 '25 - Apr 17 bull leg EURJPY remains bearish. The sharp sell-off this week resulted in a breach of key support at 179.37, the Aug 3 low. The break confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that started late July. Note too that the cross has also broken out of an extended sideways range that it has been trading inside, this year. This reinforces a bear threat and scope is seen for an extension towards 176.01, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is 181.33, the Aug 7 low.
* RES 4: 1.3814 High Jan 30 * RES 3: 1.3733 High Feb 4 * RES 2: 1.3696 76.4% retracement of the Jan 27 - Jun 24 bear cycle * RES 1: 1.3603/76 High Aug 27 / 21 and the bull trigger * PRICE: 1.3523 @ 16:24 BST Sep 11 * SUP 1: 1.3482/91 Low Sep 11 / 50-day EMA * SUP 2: 1.3475 Low Sep 02 * SUP 3: 1.3458 Trendline support drawn from the Jun 24 low * SUP 4: 1.3333 Low Jul 30 GBPUSD is in consolidation mode and trades above support at the 50-day EMA, currently at 1.3491. The EMA represents a short-term pivot level. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement, exposing a trendline support at 1.3458. The trendline is drawn from the Jun 24 low. Clearance of both support points would highlight a stronger bear threat. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 1.3603, the Aug 27 high.
