Javier Blas

So Tokyo springs into action after every major energy shock to reassess its supply sources, making it a bellwether of global trends. The direction it's signalling this time? Run away from the Middle East.

I don’t know who will win the US-Iran war. But if you ask me who’s prevailing in the battle over the Strait of Hormuz, it’s clear US President Donald Trump has the advantage. As much as Tehran says the opposite, the strait is effectively wide open. Crude oil exports from regional US allies via the waterway, plus bypass routes, have risen to about 80% of prewar levels. Iran, meanwhile, has seen its own oil exports plunge to zero.

The US appears to have gained the upper hand in the battle over the Strait of Hormuz, with allied crude exports recovering to about 80% of prewar levels while Iran's own exports have fallen to zero. But oil prices remain elevated because traders fear Tehran could escalate by attacking ports, pipelines or oilfields, while diesel and other refined products remain in short supply.

I don't know who will win the U.S.-Iran war. But if you ask me who's prevailing in the battle over the Strait of Hormuz, it's clear U.S. President Donald Trump has the advantage. As much as Tehran says the opposite, the strait is effectively........

I have some news: I just bought an electric vehicle. I fueled up my old car for the last time in September — when my shiny new EV arrived last week, that was the end of my relationship with gasoline.

“Buy to the sound of cannons, sell to the sound of trumpets.” The ancient stock market maxim resonates in today’s Middle East. While the US and Iran fight, Big Oil is heading into neighboring Iraq.

Fortune favors the bold — and the frugal. BP Plc decided in early February to suspend its $3 billion-a-year share buyback program. The move wasn’t popular with every shareholder, but it was necessary to preserve cash to pay down debt instead. Days later, the US and Israel attacked Iran, sending energy prices sharply higher. The ensuing windfall, plus the buyback savings, have created an unmissable opportunity: The British oil major can solve its balance-sheet problems once and for all.

While the US and Iran fight, the world’s major oil corporations are heading into neighbouring Iraq to secure future oil supplies.

The oil market sees the future of the Iran war as binary. Either Tehran and Washington reach a deal — in days rather than months — or they head into an extended and worsening conflict. With few signs of peace, the market is anticipating another round of hostilities, perhaps as soon as next week after the US midterm elections. There is, however, a third path: The current deadlock becomes the new normal, creating a forever stalemate.