Jon Sindreu

Rising rates may nudge Japanese ‌companies to bring home their $5.3 trln in overseas portfolio investments. So far, however, it's global investors who ​are snapping up Sanae Takaichi’s mushrooming debt. ​It belies the idea of bond vigilantes ⁠expecting a Japanese fiscal crisis.

While France’s Emmanuel ⁠Macron promotes data ​centres, Pennsylvania's Josh ​Shapiro wants to curb their drain on ​resources. One ​is construction labour, still 16% ‌below ⁠2008 levels in rich nations. A better answer: ​use ​the ⁠AI frenzy to rebuild ​construction capacity ​permanently.

Distance limits the ‌Canadian Prime Minister's push for "associate membership" of the European bloc. Yet interests are aligned for ​closer links. Ottawa wants to diversify ​beyond the US, which takes 72% ⁠of its exports. Brussels needs energy, critical ​minerals and security partners.

Ahead of policy decisions in the US, UK and Japan, traders are now ​pricing in three to four ​rises in a year. It looks ⁠excessive: the energy price spike is ​more likely to sap growth than ​fuel lasting inflation. Unless officials push back, market views may become self-fulfilling.

Despite reaching 44% adoption and making many tasks quicker, thinking machines have failed to ​generate any immediate signs of ​improved worker efficiency. The same was ⁠true of PCs in the 1980s. ​Replicating the dot-com era's healthier 2.7% ​growth will be a maturation process.

Rate-hike expectations are getting out of hand - Jon Sindreu

Americans aren’t selling homes because they are bound to borrowing costs ​that are far cheaper ​than new loans. The result is ⁠that it reduces supply the ​same way rent freezes backed by ​New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani do. Changing the 30-year-lock-in term could get the ​market moving.

Rather than dump their ​full stash of long-term bonds into a fragile market, ‌officials will keep £120 bln and sell some to the Treasury. It erodes the pretence that the central bank isn't involved in government debt management, ​which could better align supply with investor demand.

The region's boom ⁠was built ​on German value ​chains, cheap energy and foreign investment, all ​now under ​pressure. Yet growth is set ‌to ⁠top 2%, outperforming western neighbours. Making more ​high-tech ​goods ⁠and taking a united stance ​on China ​can ⁠preserve its export-led models.

Chancellor John ​Healey has talked markets into expecting little this ‌autumn. Amid a £10 bln fiscal hole created by the Iran crisis, he may defer thorny spending decisions to 2027. But past budgets ​show how a calm reception can sour later, ​highlighting the risk of delay.