Paul Iddon

Analysis: From the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea, the Iran war is reshaping maritime security – and the Suez Canal may no longer be beyond its reach

Despite Iranian warnings to European nations hosting US bases and the IRGC designating British sites as legitimate targets, analysts largely dismiss the likelihood of Tehran launching ballistic missile attacks on Europe. Experts emphasize such a strike on a NATO member would trigger Article 5, leading to severe retaliation and direct alliance involvement, a catastrophic outcome for Iran. Past long-range missile attempts, like those on Diego Garcia, were symbolic and ineffective. While Iran considered a symbolic strike on Ukraine and previously targeted Turkey, these actions carry immense risk. Europe's advanced missile defenses further complicate any attack. Iran is more likely to use cyberattacks or target assets in the Middle East, as a direct European missile strike would be a "tipping point" with dire consequences, potentially even undermining Russia's geopolitical standing.

Analysis: As the Houthis step up attacks on Saudi Arabia and government forces, Yemen risks becoming another front in the region's widening conflict

Middle Eastern powers continue to arm both sides of the Russia-Ukraine war. The U.S. is set to authorize Turkey to transfer M270 MLRS, M39 ATACMS ballistic missiles, and cluster munitions to Ukraine, a move criticized by Human Rights Watch. Concurrently, Iran has reportedly refined its Shahed-107 loitering munitions, enhancing their lethality based on combat experience, and continues supplying Russia with drones and ballistic missiles. Turkey previously provided Ukraine with drones and APCs. Other regional players like UAE, Jordan, and Qatar have supplied Ukraine with U.S. or German-financed equipment. Israel, despite Ukrainian requests, has largely refrained from direct lethal aid, citing concerns over its operations in Syria, though it did send retired Patriot missiles to the U.S. for Ukraine. Egypt shifted from potentially arming Russia to supplying artillery rounds for Ukraine.

Congressman Abe Hamadeh introduced the "BRRRRT Act" to secure the A-10 Warthog's future, aiming to preserve its combat capability and maintain a 126-aircraft fleet until at least 2033. This legislative push follows the A-10's critical performance in the recent Iran war, where it executed maritime roles and vital close air support for a rescue mission, prompting its service extension to 2030. The bill also outlines strict criteria for any replacement aircraft and advocates for integrating the Warthog's operational lessons into autonomous and AI-enabled systems, potentially even an autonomous model. Despite its age, the A-10 has received significant upgrades, enabling precision strikes and drone engagement with cost-effective munitions, proving its unique value. However, a TOPGUN instructor warns that insufficient financial commitment risks an "irreversible loss of A-10 combat capability" soon.

Four years and six months into its grinding war with Russia, Ukraine finds itself critically short of essential American-made MIM-104 Patriot missile

Syria and Russia reached a memorandum of understanding in early August on the future of Russia's access to the strategic coastal Tartus naval and Hmeimim air bases.

Analysis: Since Assad's fall, Israel has operated with few constraints over Syrian airspace. Turkey's growing military presence threatens to change that

In recent weeks, the Houthis in Yemen shot down a Turkish-made Bayraktar Akinci drone, and two Akincis were spotted in eastern Libya for the first time.

Recent displays and sightings of Syria's remaining flyable fighter jets and helicopters are a reminder of how antiquated and battered the air force the country inherited from the Assad regime is.