Scott Lincicome

The administration's tariff experiment has been an unfortunate demonstration that tariffs will not fundamentally change a country's trade balance because they don't change the underlying savings and investment patterns that drive it. Tariffs can cut imports, but they also tend to cut exports (through a stronger dollar, retaliation, and costlier inputs). As long as savings/​investments don't change, the trade balance won't either (though certain short-term fluctuations are inevitable).

Trump and other tariff fans are right that the Mesabi announcement is what their favored policy produces. And that's very much the problem.

The trade deficit is back to pre-tariff levels.

From steel and semiconductors to defense and mining, the federal government is increasingly intertwined with private firms. This new era of “state corporatism” threatens the market-driven dynamism and innovation that have long underpinned American prosperity.

Listen to this article As my colleague Tad DeHaven announced here earlier this week, Cato just launched the Restoring Free Enterprise project

The results don’t track neatly along political lines.

If there’s one thing on which American politicians can agree, it’s that US factory jobs are special. And with midterm elections approaching, the number of people working in manufacturing has become the scoreboard for President Donald Trump’s trade and industrial policies: Democrats point to 35,000 jobs lost since Trump took office in January 2025, while Republicans highlight a rebound of almost 60,000 since last December’s low.

If there's one thing on which American politicians can agree, it's that U.S. factory jobs are special.

The Cato report is more than just a ranking; it's a “cheat sheet” for policymakers and voters alike.

If there's one thing on which American politicians can agree, it's that U.S. factory jobs are special.