Latha Venkatesh

The rupee has gained around 0.65% in two sessions despite rising crude prices, as RBI dollar sales, MSCI-related inflows and traders unwinding bets against the currency provide support.

Kamakshya Trivedi, Head of Global FX, Interest Rates and Emerging Markets Research at Goldman Sachs explains why the rupee may remain range-bound, what could drive RBI rate hikes and when foreign investors may return to India.

Lakshmanan V, Group President and Head – Treasury (Treasurer) at Federal Bank, said banks are likely to price deposits lower as surplus liquidity from FCNR deposits increases. He expects banks to manage this liquidity through a combination of borrowing and reducing high-value deposits from their existing deposit base.

Former finance secretary S C Garg’s contention that India’s Q1 GDP growth looks strong only because last year’s numbers were revised lower overlooks the five major changes introduced in the new GDP series.

MB Mahesh, Analyst, Kotak Institutional Equities, said banks may see limited margin improvement in the near term as they are unlikely to deploy the large inflow of deposits into loans immediately.

Excess banking system liquidity and rising inflation risks have made October a key RBI policy meeting, according to economists from Citi India and ICICI Bank. They expect the central bank to use multiple tools to absorb liquidity while keeping rate hike options open. What could this mean for borrowers and markets?

Steven Englander, Managing Director and Global Head of G10 FX Research and North American Macro Strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, remains bullish on the dollar over the medium term, although he expects near-term volatility. For the rupee, Englander expects a largely range-bound outlook, while warning that high oil prices and weak capital inflows could renew pressure.

Nela Richardson, Chief Economist and ESG Officer at ADP, argues that the bigger opportunity from AI lies not in eliminating jobs but in using technology to create new forms of value and employment. She says workers and employers will need to identify which tasks can be automated and which require higher-value skills such as problem-solving, design, collaboration and decision-making.

Bhanu Baweja, Chief Strategist at UBS Investment Bank, sees recent FCNR flows as providing the rupee with a temporary reprieve, rather than marking the end of its depreciation cycle. He argues that the currency remains uncompetitive, which could continue to be a headwind for overseas investors and their returns on Indian assets.

3R Investment Management's Neeraj Seth says rising oil prices and a global rush for capital mean Indian rate hikes are likely to return. He sees India's equity story turning bottom-up rather than broad-based, with value concentrated in financials, consumer discretionary, and infrastructure-linked sectors. He also expects the rupee to find stability as the dollar turns weaker.